If Business Picks Up...
A few months back, when the Dow was down down significantly, one investment newsletter I get encouraged the readers to invest. The newsletter thought the stock market had bottomed. If I had invested at that moment would have made a bunch of money as the stock market has increased over the last few months. Yeah, I know. And if my parents had invested in Coca Cola when I was born ... and if my Auntie had certain physical characteristics she'd be my Uncle, etc., etc., etc.
So, what about fasteners? We know this economy isn't going to last forever. And, if business picks up across several different sectors at the same time, where will the parts come from? Everyone is reducing inventory. Will we run out of product? I have heard that some of the large, nationally known catalog houses have reduced their safety stock from six months to three months. So, if their business picks up they would not only need to buy for current business needs but also for the rebuilding ot their safety stock. Multiply that out by the number of end users and distributors and suppliers who all have depleted their inventory and things could get very interesting. Wouldn't you just love to go out and buy containers of really inexpensive hex nuts or cap screws right now while they can be purchased inexpensively and just wait to sell them when the economy turns? I don't know. Might be a little risky. But I do wish I'd had the money to buy up some more stocks a few months ago. And the nerve to do it.
So, what about fasteners? We know this economy isn't going to last forever. And, if business picks up across several different sectors at the same time, where will the parts come from? Everyone is reducing inventory. Will we run out of product? I have heard that some of the large, nationally known catalog houses have reduced their safety stock from six months to three months. So, if their business picks up they would not only need to buy for current business needs but also for the rebuilding ot their safety stock. Multiply that out by the number of end users and distributors and suppliers who all have depleted their inventory and things could get very interesting. Wouldn't you just love to go out and buy containers of really inexpensive hex nuts or cap screws right now while they can be purchased inexpensively and just wait to sell them when the economy turns? I don't know. Might be a little risky. But I do wish I'd had the money to buy up some more stocks a few months ago. And the nerve to do it.

This weekend I had the opportunity to review some old files from a distributor association that I sometimes work for. The file was from January 2007. It said that we would experience good growth in 2007 and slow growth in early 2008 followed by a RECESSION in 2009. Basically, we all knew this was coming.
The same people predict a moderate turnaround in 2010.
Now the comment; most of us were semi-unprepared for the start. Will we be similarly unprepared for the end?
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Too bad other plant closure north on the border Ingersoll Fasteners.Does someone wnat to buy us.
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Man, I had the nerve to buy stock a few months ago... I just didn't have the cash!
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While we all kick ourselves for not timing the stock market perfectly and getting in right at the recent bottom, it is tough not to try and make up for it by trying to take advantage of what looks like a bottom in the fastener biz. I say let's just keep selling the hell out of what we have in stock and if we are fortunate enough to need more stock - then we'll get a heck of a deal!
We're fastener freaks, I say we keep doing what we do best and let the market experts be the ones to make millions off of timing things just right (maybe they will make back what they lost in the last several months).
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